Why I'm Voting For Daisy Cooper

A short video on why Daisy has my vote - Go on - watch it - it's only 60 seconds! Enjoy!

I'm Voting For Daisy!

I Don't Want Labour To Win This Time

[typo correction 16/09/18]

Truth be told I'd rather Labour lost this election. Fortunately that is the most likely outcome despite the surprisingly good campaign the Party has run. The polling firms that place the parties neck and neck (Survation and YouGov) use a higher weighting for the likelihood that young voters will actually get out and vote - so unless something remarkable happens I can't see anything other than a Tory majority (though under 30's break 70:30 in Labour's favour so there is still an outside chance).

The Reports Of Europe's Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Shouldn't Europe have fallen apart by now? Europe has had three vitally important elections (Austria, Holland, France) since Britain voted to leave the EU and in each case the pro-EU parties have triumphed. So much for the gleeful predictions by the doom-mongers that the EU would fall apart once Britain leaves. The only thing that will fall apart when Britain leaves the EU is Britain.

I guess they had not taken into account the extent to which Europeans realise that despite all it's faults the EU is still a force for unity and peace on a continent that has been wracked by war for centuries. That failure of comprehension is of a piece with the standard British arrogance implicit in the "they need us more than we need them" argument wheeled out during the referendum campaign. It turns out they don't need us after all.

Meanwhile, quietly and largely unremarked, the EU is continuing a period of sustained growth while Britain is heading toward Brexit-induced recession. The British economy is entering a long-anticipated downturn triggered by Sterling's 20% slide since the referendum - prices are up, wages are down, the savings ratio is at its lowest since the financial crisis and the level of private debt is at its highest. House prices in the UK are now at their highest in relation to average income since before the financial crisis, which lest we forget was caused by bad mortgage debt and over-leverage.

The economy has been kept afloat since the referendum by consumer spending but with inflation now outstripping wage rises and savings running down only resorting to more borrowing can keep the spending binge going at its previous level. With interest rates likely to be heading up that is not a good place to be. I fear we are heading for a hard landing in the next couple of years. If the Tories do, as seems certain, get their majority and their mandate to go ahead and implement their long-sought Brexit they will truly own the economic mess that unfolds. This will be hung around their necks like a millstone at every election for a generation. We still talk about the Winter Of Discontent, the Poll Tax, the Financial Crisis. The Tories will own Brexit and it will sink them.

Sadly the Labour Party has not had the foresight to oppose Brexit - it has meekly fallen into line behind the Tories. More fool them. Claiming that they are "accepting the will of the people" is a lame excuse - I have had conversations with people on the doorstep saying that they voted Remain but now back Brexit because "that's democracy". Well, no, it isn't. Political parties are frequently given a mandate at General Elections to implement truly wrong-headed policies; that does not preclude HM Opposition from pointing out that however democratically arrived at the policy is still wrong. They don't have to suddenly agree with everything in the governing party's manifesto simply because they lost the election. Those same wrong-headed policies are subsequently reversed when they prove to be have been a mistake. Take the Poll Tax as an example - an overweening Government with a large majority forced through a policy which half the country thought was wrong. Subsequently pretty much the whole country realised it was in fact a huge mistake and it was abandoned, having taken the Prime Minister with it. The same applies here - Brexit is wrong, a mistake, an enormous miscalculation; it can, should and will be reversed once the full repercussions become clear to all.

So while Europe continues to flourish as Britain sinks - falling behind the EU in the queue for that trade deal with the US, losing our European financial supremacy to Paris, Dublin and Frankfurt, incomes falling as WTO tariffs eat into wages - we will have the opportunity to realise our own stupidity and at some point, maybe 2022, maybe beyond, to elect a Government that pledges to rejoin the single market and put an end to the madness.

It's not over yet ...

I have always said that the fight to prevent Brexit is not yet over and that we would get a chance to overturn it - either via a second referendum during the transition phase or via the 2020 General Election falling during that transition. Instead it has arrived early in the form of a snap General Election in June. This is great news and I salute Theresa May's courage in allowing the voting public a second chance having seen the disaster unfolding before us. She has seen the divisions the vote has created and the fact that in contrast to the opinions of the 'they need us more than we need them' brigade the EU is going to ensure the UK is worse off outside the EU than in.

This is the chance to decide whether this is still a country worth living in or actually a xenophobic little island off the coast of Europe spending its time looking back to the 1950's through sepia-tinted spectacles.

It is also a gift horse for those (like me) who want to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party. It's nothing personal - he seems like a great bloke and all those who meet him say the same - but he is not a leader and he is not a winner in the eyes of the voters. I would urge everyone - Labour, Green, Tories - who wants to remain in the EU or at least the single market to follow Tim Farron's lead and vote for the Lib Dems as the only party to categorically state that its objective is to keep us in the EU. The Lib Dems are standing up for the 48% - let's give them our backing.

Now, time to find out who is the Lib Dem candidate for St Albans ... 

Article 50

Article 50 has been triggered and so now begins the inevitable process of realisation by Paul Nutty and his jubilant UKIPs that their dreams of control over immigration or even, amongst their more extreme supporters, repatriation of non-UK nationals are just pie in the sky. UKIP doesn't live in the real world, but then Nutty himself comes across as just a slightly dim Scouser with a penchant for exaggeration, which doesn't say much for the sharpness of the rest of the party that chose him as leader.

I am not sure whether in their blind obsession the UKIPs realised that the majority of immigration into the UK comes from non-EU countries; maybe it passed them by. Non-EU migration is managed by a visa system - the same sort of visa system which the Government will now extend to EU citizens. So - just to spell it out for those of UKIP-level intelligence - the visa system which is supposed to control future EU immigration has been in use for all the time that the Conservative government(s) were pledged to reduce migration to the 10's of thousands and has manifestly failed to make a dent in the largest element of our total inward migration. The Government had the tools and the opportunity to more than halve net migration but failed to do so; UKIP need to ask themselves why that is. Is it possible that the levels of immigration we have seen are actually driven by business need rather than the mythical benefit tourism? Could it be that immigrants have been coming here to work rather than to scrounge? And is it remotely realistic to expect any government of any hue (other than perhaps a proto-fascist UKIP government - God forbid) to actually restrict immigration when they known that it will harm UK businesses? Of course it's not; it won't happen.

Immigration will not be reduced by our exiting the EU. The UKIPs will no doubt shout and wail and stamp their little feet but the Government will merely point out that they have fulfilled their promise to 'take back control' of immigration and don't plan to actually reduce it. Oh what fun we are going to have when those poor deluded muppets realise they have been conned. No doubt there'll be protests; Nigel Farage will most likely become UKIP leader, again, to lead some kind of citizens popular uprising of the sort he threatened shortly after the referendum when he thought things were not going his way. Maybe there'll be pogroms? Vigilantes to hunt down 'illegals'?

You may think this is a flippant post, but when I listen to intelligent, mainstream Conservatives (not yet an oxymoron) like Nicky Morgan, Anna Soubry, Michael Heseltine and Spreadsheet Phil who understand the importance of immigration and the Single Market to the UK economy it throws into stark relief the extent to which the Tory Party and the political agenda in general has been hijacked by lunatic Brexiters. If anyone thinks those protectionist, anti-business ideologues are going to improve the lives of the down-trodden workers of the UK they are deluded.

Article 50 has been triggered and we are leaving the EU. I hope the UKIPs are braced for the slap in the face they are about to receive over immigration.

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics