Cameron is in a hole, and it's one entirely of his own making. Such is the (misplaced) inner confidence and self belief deriving from his privileged upbringing and educational background that he fails to recognise the limits of his own abilities and of what is achievable. He managed to convince himself that he really could single-handedly renegotiate Britain's relationship with the EU. He really believed he could then go on to persuade the people of Britain to back him. This was his historic mission after all - a political gamble to resolve a weeping sore on the backside of the Conservative Party and to guarantee his re-appointment as Prime Minister, after which he would hold the referendum and safely keep Britain in the EU where even he knows our best interests lie. A triumph! After all, isn't this what he was born to do? Isn't this what his life has been building to; isn't it his birthright? What he failed to recognise is that in the main, encouraged by his own lunatic friends in the media, the British people now want to leave the EU. By promising to give them the opportunity to do just that he has opened Pandora's box and it will not be closed again. He failed to recognise that he really does not carry the influence required to persuade them otherwise, that people no longer doff their caps and defer to his better judgement. He has given the people the choice without giving them the means to choose, and the result will be an exit from Europe. It will be a disaster.
So why did he offer the referendum at all? Well it was interesting to see Tim Montgomerie on the BBC News today describe how Cameron realised he could never resolve the split in the Tory party over Europe except by delegating the decision to the British people to settle, thereby shutting-up his warring factions up for good. This is a tacit admission that the referendum's only purpose is party political, and not in the national interest. Well, I guess we knew that all along but it's nice to have it confirmed. Unfortunately it means Cameron will be remembered as the Prime Minister who was too weak to articulate and stand by an opinion of his own and instead allowed Britain to be shoved towards the EU exit door. He may even get to be the PM who takes us through it, because however he manages to present his renegotiations and whichever side of the in/out debate he eventually comes down in favour of (presumably whichever side is playing best with the public at the time ....) the referendum will result in an 'out' verdict. And Britain's position in the world will be gone for good, our influence diminished and our relevance to the emerging economic world powers will be zero.
Still, the fruitcakes, clowns, closet racists and swivel-eyed loons will be happy - they will have got what they wanted, even if they don't really know what that is or understand it's implications.
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