Shouldn't Europe have fallen apart by now? Europe has had three vitally important elections (Austria, Holland, France) since Britain voted to leave the EU and in each case the pro-EU parties have triumphed. So much for the gleeful predictions by the doom-mongers that the EU would fall apart once Britain leaves. The only thing that will fall apart when Britain leaves the EU is Britain.
I guess they had not taken into account the extent to which Europeans realise that despite all it's faults the EU is still a force for unity and peace on a continent that has been wracked by war for centuries. That failure of comprehension is of a piece with the standard British arrogance implicit in the "they need us more than we need them" argument wheeled out during the referendum campaign. It turns out they don't need us after all.
Meanwhile, quietly and largely unremarked, the EU is continuing a period of sustained growth while Britain is heading toward Brexit-induced recession. The British economy is entering a long-anticipated downturn triggered by Sterling's 20% slide since the referendum - prices are up, wages are down, the savings ratio is at its lowest since the financial crisis and the level of private debt is at its highest. House prices in the UK are now at their highest in relation to average income since before the financial crisis, which lest we forget was caused by bad mortgage debt and over-leverage.
The economy has been kept afloat since the referendum by consumer spending but with inflation now outstripping wage rises and savings running down only resorting to more borrowing can keep the spending binge going at its previous level. With interest rates likely to be heading up that is not a good place to be. I fear we are heading for a hard landing in the next couple of years. If the Tories do, as seems certain, get their majority and their mandate to go ahead and implement their long-sought Brexit they will truly own the economic mess that unfolds. This will be hung around their necks like a millstone at every election for a generation. We still talk about the Winter Of Discontent, the Poll Tax, the Financial Crisis. The Tories will own Brexit and it will sink them.
Sadly the Labour Party has not had the foresight to oppose Brexit - it has meekly fallen into line behind the Tories. More fool them. Claiming that they are "accepting the will of the people" is a lame excuse - I have had conversations with people on the doorstep saying that they voted Remain but now back Brexit because "that's democracy". Well, no, it isn't. Political parties are frequently given a mandate at General Elections to implement truly wrong-headed policies; that does not preclude HM Opposition from pointing out that however democratically arrived at the policy is still wrong. They don't have to suddenly agree with everything in the governing party's manifesto simply because they lost the election. Those same wrong-headed policies are subsequently reversed when they prove to be have been a mistake. Take the Poll Tax as an example - an overweening Government with a large majority forced through a policy which half the country thought was wrong. Subsequently pretty much the whole country realised it was in fact a huge mistake and it was abandoned, having taken the Prime Minister with it. The same applies here - Brexit is wrong, a mistake, an enormous miscalculation; it can, should and will be reversed once the full repercussions become clear to all.
The economy has been kept afloat since the referendum by consumer spending but with inflation now outstripping wage rises and savings running down only resorting to more borrowing can keep the spending binge going at its previous level. With interest rates likely to be heading up that is not a good place to be. I fear we are heading for a hard landing in the next couple of years. If the Tories do, as seems certain, get their majority and their mandate to go ahead and implement their long-sought Brexit they will truly own the economic mess that unfolds. This will be hung around their necks like a millstone at every election for a generation. We still talk about the Winter Of Discontent, the Poll Tax, the Financial Crisis. The Tories will own Brexit and it will sink them.
Sadly the Labour Party has not had the foresight to oppose Brexit - it has meekly fallen into line behind the Tories. More fool them. Claiming that they are "accepting the will of the people" is a lame excuse - I have had conversations with people on the doorstep saying that they voted Remain but now back Brexit because "that's democracy". Well, no, it isn't. Political parties are frequently given a mandate at General Elections to implement truly wrong-headed policies; that does not preclude HM Opposition from pointing out that however democratically arrived at the policy is still wrong. They don't have to suddenly agree with everything in the governing party's manifesto simply because they lost the election. Those same wrong-headed policies are subsequently reversed when they prove to be have been a mistake. Take the Poll Tax as an example - an overweening Government with a large majority forced through a policy which half the country thought was wrong. Subsequently pretty much the whole country realised it was in fact a huge mistake and it was abandoned, having taken the Prime Minister with it. The same applies here - Brexit is wrong, a mistake, an enormous miscalculation; it can, should and will be reversed once the full repercussions become clear to all.
So while Europe continues to flourish as Britain sinks - falling behind the EU in the queue for that trade deal with the US, losing our European financial supremacy to Paris, Dublin and Frankfurt, incomes falling as WTO tariffs eat into wages - we will have the opportunity to realise our own stupidity and at some point, maybe 2022, maybe beyond, to elect a Government that pledges to rejoin the single market and put an end to the madness.