Remainers - relax, it's not going to happen!

Remainers should take a deep breath, breathe out and relax - I have news - Brexit won't happen.

Having called the 2015 General Election correctly against the odds (The 2015 General Election is far from over) back in 2013, and the EU referendum the same year (Cameron's place in history) I am on a hat-trick of correct predictions. For the country's sake I hope I have read the runes correctly. 

Here's how I think it will play out.

Theresa May will inevitably get her deal from Brussels in November, probably by kicking the most contentious issues into the long grass. There is no chance though that she will be able to get it through the Commons - Labour will not turn down their best chance of removing the prime minister and potentially provoking another general election; the ERG's foot-soldiers know this and will also take the opportunity to provoke May's exit by voting the deal down. The ERG know this is their once-in-a-lifetime opportunity leave the EU on WTO terms - they know that the default no-deal exit is now baked-in if they sabotage May's Chequers deal. Labour will not go for the option of amending the Brexit legislation to force a People's Vote because they have their eyes fixed on the main prize - a General Election. Bringing down the Government is their priority. So in my view there is not a cat in hell's chance of the deal getting through the Commons. May will have to resign - there is no way she can spend two years negotiating the biggest constitutional change for several generations, fail, and then hope to remain in post. She will have lost the confidence of the country and of parliament and will step down. She should never have taken the job in the first place - a Remain voter delivering Brexit was never going to convince the ERG and the 'kippers.

The question is what happens next.

There will be a Tory Party leadership contest to replace May. I believe that despite Boris' current toxicity the parliamentary party will grudgingly have to put him on the ballot and as he is still the grassroots' favourite, I think he will win. The Article 50 deadline will have to be extended while this is going on as the contest will take upwards of 3 months, but I believe the EU will do this as the inevitable outcome otherwise is Britain leaving without a deal. They will also do this in the hope that this process will result in a People's Vote which overturns the result of the 2016 referendum.

Now, in my view Boris is a political coward - choosing lazy populism over serious politics, always calculating what is best for his chances of becoming PM rather than what is best for the country. I think he will see which way the wind is blowing over Brexit and will not want his legacy to be that of forcing through a no-deal Brexit that maybe only 25% of the turnout in 2016 supported and that the country is now clearly moving towards rejecting (Brexit Shift) as it will result in economic carnage - pro-Brexit economists conceding it will wipe out most of what remains of our manufacturing and agricultural industries. Boris generally bends with the wind and will look for a way out. The 2016 referendum question was framed as "a simple in/out referendum" but the Leave campaign offered myriad possible outcomes - Daniel Hannan talked of "nobody contemplating leaving the single market", Farage talked of the Norway option, others pushed Canada. But the target was a bespoke deal - "the easiest in history", which we would get "because they need us more than we need them" apparently. How arrogant that now appears. The no-deal option was only contemplated as a backstop if all else failed - but very few people actively voted for this in my view. It has become clear that there is no compromise option, no bespoke deal, that will command the support of either the country or of Parliament - the only choice is between staying in or leaving on WTO terms. That choice has never been put to the electorate.

Boris is a coward but he is also a student of history - he will want not want to push ahead with a policy that is becoming increasingly unpopular with the public. He will remember what happened to Margaret Thatcher when she did the same with the Poll Tax, and he will look for a way out. Unfortunately, despite originally being ambivalent about whether to support Remain or Leave - and of course making the decision based on a calculation as to which side gave him the greatest political advantage, he has boxed himself in to the no-deal position so he is committed to continuing to campaign for that as PM. But it does not matter - he can follow the example of that other political coward, David Cameron, and refer the issue back to the electorate. If no-deal was to win he presses ahead with no-deal; if it loses he simply cancels Brexit. No protracted negotiations, no ebbing away of authority, no resignation needed - the issue is quickly done and dusted and forgotten about and he can get on with the job he always wanted - that of being PM.

So he will seek his own mandate for a policy he knows will be rejected and then forgotten - either through a General Election or else by agreeing to a People's Vote. The General Election route would mean a largely Remain-supporting parliamentary Tory Party falling in line behind a manifesto pledging a no-deal Brexit but if it happened Parliament would be hung again and Boris would likely govern as a minority party leader or else in another unholy coalition with the DUP. The Tories would not get a parliamentary majority campaigning on a no-deal Brexit. Alternatively, Labour may be the largest party (unlikely I think) and will have come around to supporting a People's Vote and to have it included as a manifesto commitment - the pressure from the grassroots is irresistible now. The outcome either way is that between pro-Remain Tories and Labour there will be a majority in Parliament for a People's Vote. Alternatively, Boris may go straight to the People's Vote rather than calling an Election once it becomes clear no-deal is the only game in town and that this is being increasingly rejected by the country - no doubt he would be able to wordsmith some pretext with which to justify this volte-face.

So either way we end up with a second referendum but this time on a more straightforward question - remain in, or leave on WTO terms. On that question I am utterly convinced that Remain would win now, and would have won in 2016. I think Boris is too.